By Kevin Maurer
U.S. surveillance flights cut through the skies probing for fentanyl plants in Mexico. American soldiers string barbed wire along the Southern border. The State Department just designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTO). Donald Trump’s promised war on Mexico’s cartels is ramping up.
Meanwhile, on the south side of the border, the cartels are continuing to wage war among themselves, and appear to be either in denial or underestimating what the build-up of U.S. forces signals, according to cartel insiders and researchers.
“We haven’t really seen any reactions,” says Stefano Ritondale, a former Army intelligence officer who uses the handle All Source News on X,. “I think the general understanding I’m getting is there’s this sense of almost delusion within the cartels. A lot of especially the rank-and-file or even some of the leadership believe the Mexican government will protect them. Or that even any U.S. military operations that happen inside Mexico might be bilateral, not unilateral. And if it’s bilateral, the cartels probably feel like they might get a heads up beforehand.”
Rolling Stone reported in November that Trump’s incoming administration was considering a “soft invasion” of Mexico, in which American special operations would be sent covertly to assassinate cartel leaders. Potential plans on the table include everything from drone strikes and commando raids; airstrikes on cartel infrastructure or drug labs; sending in military trainers and “advisers”; and waging cyber warfare against drug lords and their networks.
A key step is putting the cartels on the State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organizations. Last week, six cartels — the Sinaloa cartel, Jalisco New Generation cartel, the Northeast cartel, the Michoacán family, the United Cartels and the Gulf Cartel — were declared terrorist organizations. The Salvadoran MS-13 and the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang were also on the list. This designation triggers U.S. sanctions, including asset freezes, restrictions on financial transactions, and prohibitions on U.S. citizens and organizations providing support.
“I don’t think they understand the severity of the situation and how an FTO designation can really hurt them either from their business networks and weapons trafficking,” says Ritondale, who also works as chief intelligence officer for Artorias, a private intelligence and data analysis company. “Now every single one of those Americans, when they get captured, if they’re proven to help a cartel, could be charged with providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization.”
Before the FTO announcement, the U.S. military and CIA were already increasing surveillance flights of Mexican drug cartels. Some of the CIA drone flights over Mexico were targeting fentanyl labs, according to a New York Times report.
Started under the Biden administration, the flights have successfully identified labs by detecting chemicals emitting from the production of fentanyl. The intelligence is then shared with Mexican officials, according to the news report.
While the surveillance flights are the most overt evidence of this new Pentagon mandate, Northern Command has also been mapping out potential operations for months, according to Defense Department sources. Working groups focused on targeting have taken over sensitive compartmented information facilities — secure areas where the U.S. government can store, process, and discuss classified information — at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona.
A source from the Special Operations community confirmed the Joint Special Operations Command based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, is also lobbying policymakers to include them in any operations. One source familiar with ongoing planning said this is a near-term priority for the administration. But a defense official voiced grave concern over the potential for things to spiral out of control as operations escalate.
A Northern Command official tells Rolling Stone it had “no information” on operations planning. “The current mission for U.S. Northern Command is to aggressively bolster security at the southern border in support of [the Department of Homeland Security],” the official says. “Shortly after Jan. 20, U.S. Soldiers and Marines immediately deployed to seamlessly integrate with Title 10 forces already along the border and are working together with the Department of Homeland Security and Customs and Border Protection.”
Meanwhile, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) thinks private citizens can help in the fight. He introduced the Cartel Marque and Reprisal Authorization Act of 2025, which allows private citizens to act against enemies of the U.S. on behalf of the government.
Burchett’s office didn’t respond to questions about the origins of the legislation, how the letters of marque fit into the broader strategy, or what guidelines and support — like medical evacuation — would be granted to these groups if they act as government agents. It was also unclear if groups operating under these letters could keep the spoils of their operations like privateers were granted in the 1800s.
Despite America’s troop build-up and talk of mobilizing vigilantes to act on behalf of the government, the Mexican cartels appear to be more focused on fighting rivals or waging civil wars.
Ioan Grillo and Katarina Szulc from Crashout Media asked cartel members — both leaders and street level operators — for reaction in the wake of the FTO announcement. The answers ranged from defiance to appeasement, including stemming the flow of migrants and fentanyl.
“We are not going [to] be the ones to start a war,” a cartel area boss told Crashout Media. “You can’t beat the [U.S] government. I guarantee there won’t be a war, where they want to invade here.”
Ritondale says that despite the new FTO designation, the message boards used by cartel members remain focused on internal issues.
“I think a lot of the cartels think their greatest threat is rival cartels, not necessarily the United States,” Ritondale says. “And honestly, I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with them because who are the guys who can take away the plazas,” he says, referring to what are focal points for trafficking routes. “It’s the rivals, not necessarily the U.S. government. I don’t think anybody’s suggesting the 82nd Airborne is going to airdrop into a plaza.”
A ceasefire between two factions of the Gulf Cartel that have been fighting for at least three years had less to do with the American saber-rattling and was more about internal and political pressure, Ritondale says. One of the groups lost a key plaza near Tamaulipas along the northeast portion of the U.S.-Mexico border and decided to focus their attention on rivals to the west, instead of fighting a two-front war.
Meanwhile, rival factions — Los Chapitos and La Mayiza — are fighting in Culiacán, a city in the western state of Sinaloa, after Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, a longtime leader of Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, was taken into custody in July. The Sinaloa Cartel civil war kicked off on Sept. 9 when gunmen stormed the home of a Chapitos leader. Last week, Mexican security forces targeted the Chapitos, leading to the arrest of two members of the group’s inner circle. Kevin Alonso Gil Acosta, known as El 200, oversaw security and the purchase of weapons for Los Chapitos. José Ángel Cannobio Inzunza handled the cartel’s finances and fentanyl operations.
“It’s crazy,” Ritondale says. “Chapitos are getting pummeled.”
Some cartel observers see the latest moves against Los Chapitos as a push to end the civil war or to appease Trump. But Mica Treviño, who runs CartelInsider.com, a website dedicated to researching the cartels, downplays the significance.
“If this were about ending the war, they wouldn’t just be hitting one side,” Treviño says. “And if it were about a Trump optics move, they’d need a much bigger name than Canobbio.”
Treviño, who has researched cartels for two decades, was invited to meet with members of the Sinaloa cartel earlier this month. He flew from his home in Texas to Culiacán where he spent a week with cartel gunmen and leaders at an undisclosed location. After spending a night in a hotel, the cartel picked up Treviño and drove him around the city for hours before taking him to a deserted airfield where he flew to meet the leaders. Surrounded by men with machine guns and masks, he enjoyed tacos and beer and even took a photo with some of the cartel members next to a souped-up 4×4 armored truck. During this trip, he got a chance to talk with members of the cartel from the lowest level to the leadership. The talk was centered on the civil war.
“They’re more concerned about the war they’re fighting right now against their competitors,” Treviño said. “That’s more of a threat to them.”
When Treviño brought up Trump, the cartel members didn’t react. Treviño said the cartel receives news from Mexican outlets and have adopted the same stance as their countrymen.
“The country doesn’t take him seriously, and they are no different,” Trevino said. “They think it’s all just huff and puff for TV.”
Trump is a lot of huff and puff, until he isn’t. America is learning that lesson the hard way.
Link to Article: Cartels Are Business as Usual Despite Trump’s Terror Designations