How the President Can Use the U.S. Military to Confront the Catastrophic Threat at the Border with Mexico

The unchecked growth of Mexican drug cartels poses a rapidly increasing threat to U.S. national security and the well-being of the American public. The rise of illicit fentanyl has driven U.S. overdose deaths to staggering levels, surpassing 100,000 annually since 2021. Mexico’s drug cartels have also become instrumental in the expansion of mass illegal migration, increasingly including the movement of individuals affiliated with foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) and the espionage operations of hostile foreign governments.

Over the past four years, the long-standing challenges around illegal migration and illicit narcotics at the U.S border have deepened and accelerated, threatening to destabilize the United States. Hostile foreign governments in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and elsewhere are weaponizing mass migration against the United States. Enabled by lack of control at the U.S. borders, both south and north, these nations and hostile non-state actors have supported the infiltration into the United States of transnational criminal organizations like Tren de Aragua, foreign spies, and terrorists from the Middle East.2

At the same time, it is increasingly clear that the Chinese Communist Party is actively funding and deploying America’s most deadly drug threat in history in the form of fentanyl, causing a destabilizing crisis and a death toll that each year eclipses the total of U.S. casualties from the Vietnam War.

 All these threats pass through the U.S. southern border, deployed from within Mexico by deadly and increasingly powerful drug cartels.

As the threats facing the U.S. at its border with Mexico rise, cooperation with Mexico has rapidly deteriorated. For decades, Mexico has been a complex security partner for the U.S., with counternarcotics cooperation impaired by corruption, capacity limitations, and political shifts. Mexico’s previous government under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had accelerated the decline in Mexico’s counternarcotics enforcement actions while imposing substantial new limits on security cooperation with the U.S. This stance created a broad-based and rapid deterioration in both U.S.–Mexico security cooperation and Mexico’s own law enforcement and security operations against the cartels. In effect, this security policy is characterized by the Mexican government granting drug cartels significantly expanded operating freedom within Mexican territory.

President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, has indicated planned continuity with López Obrador’s security policies during her administration. Notably, the Mexican government has proved more willing to disrupt the flow of illegal migration across its territory (but even this cooperation has proven tenuous).

President Trump has made it clear that his Administration will confront the cartel threat. On the first day of the new Administration, President Trump moved toward designating Mexican cartels as FTOs and indicated that he may deploy the U.S. military to Mexico to target the cartels.

 Several follow-on policy measures are available to the Trump Administration to confront the cartel threat. By reasserting U.S. national security interests in the U.S.–Mexico relationship, and using U.S. economic leverage, the U.S. can push a reluctant Mexican government to confront the cartel threat housed within its borders. The 2026 renegotiation of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) offers one such opportunity, while other issues, such as Chinese transshipment through Mexico, also demand attention. However, there is a clear need for increased U.S. action to contain and confront the cartels and their illicit activities. The increasingly unreliable nature of the U.S.–Mexico security partnership has already led the Trump Administration to signal a stance in which it prioritizes new measures and resources that reduce the reliance of the U.S. on the willingness of the Mexican government to contain the cartel threat.

By reasserting U.S. national security interests in the U.S.–Mexico relationship, and using U.S. economic leverage, the U.S. can push a reluctant Mexican government to confront the cartel threat housed within its borders.

The first steps on this front should consist of measures, such as substantial bolstering of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) border security capacities, increasing restrictions on formal and informal border crossings, ramping up U.S. law enforcement efforts, targeting illicit financial flows tied to the cartels, and sanctioning corrupt Mexican officials. At the same time, the increasingly dangerous nature of the threats emanating from Mexico, and the Mexican government’s quickly declining capacity to maintain the rule of law, should also lead the United States to seriously contemplate measures that use the capacities and resources of the U.S. military to protect the U.S. border. While the U.S. military has played varying support roles at the U.S.–Mexico border in the past several years, the Trump Administration should explore options to bolster and expand that role in the face of these threats and potential future instability. Indeed, President Trump has shown his intent to do so in his declaration of a national emergency at the U.S. southern border.

A broad and diverse set of options and legal authorities are available to the second Trump Administration for using the resources and capacities of the U.S. military to ensure the integrity of the border with Mexico. Additionally, there is substantial historical precedent for an active U.S. military role in border security and managing migration crises.

There are risks and trade-offs to repurposing U.S. military resources and personnel toward border security and deportation operations. Given the increasing risks of a conflict in the South China Sea, as well as ongoing instability in the Middle East and Europe, demands for limited U.S. military resources are substantial. Nonetheless, steps can and should be taken in congressional appropriations and Department of Defense (DOD) planning to mitigate effects on military readiness elsewhere.

This Special Report lays out and explores some core options and approaches for deploying U.S. military resources, ranging from support for infrastructure constructions and logistics to direct action against Mexican drug cartels. Ultimately, the decision of how to use the military to confront border security threats should be made by following thorough intelligence-based planning, resource and funding commitments, and appropriate coordinated measures across relevant U.S. government agencies.

To enable effective U.S. military support for border security, the Trump Administration and Congress should ensure that appropriate funding is appropriated to the DOD for fiscal years (FYs) 2025 and 2026, as well as to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). In this way, the impact on military readiness in other critical theaters could be limited. The Secretary of Defense should also order a full review of available defense resources and programs to apply in support of U.S. border security. This review should include bolstering of Reception, Staging, Onward Movement, and Integration processes and resources at and around the U.S.–Mexican border.

The U.S. military possesses unique resources and capabilities to assist with a range of missions and roles to confront the various aspects of the border crisis. When it comes to large-scale illegal-alien detention and deportation, some of the underused but most impactful resources include U.S. military transport vehicles and facilities around the world which could support detention and repatriation of illegal aliens, including to higher-risk and extra-hemispheric countries of origin. These and other options should be considered to ensure U.S. control over its border, with capacities to scale the response as needed.

Options for direct action against the cartels within Mexico should be a last resort and operate on an escalating scale, to be deployed in consideration of the present operating environment and diplomatic context. The approach for any direct military action should be tailored to the dual objectives of destabilizing cartel supply chains and prompting a desired change in behavior by the cartels or the Mexican government in the case of unilateral action. Lower-risk options, such as interception of cartel drones around the U.S. border, may still be effective, though current conditions heighten the importance of planning for more aggressive measures, including on Mexican territory.

Joint military action, coordinated with the approval of the Mexican government, is the ideal condition for any direct U.S. action against the cartels on Mexican territory. However, in the appropriate context, unilateral U.S. military action may be employed to disrupt cartel activity and prompt cooperation from a resistant Mexican government. At the same time, there are high risks of undesirable response from the Mexican government and drug cartels. Therefore, any direct U.S. military action should be preceded and accompanied by coordinated measures to mitigate undesirable responses and limit the exposure of the U.S. to the same.

Joint military action … is the ideal condition for any direct U.S. action against the cartels on Mexican territory. However … unilateral U.S. military action may be employed to disrupt cartel activity and prompt cooperation from a resistant Mexican government.

Mexico and the Cartel Threat

The nature of the cartel threat has shifted notably in recent years as the Mexican government increasingly pulls back on enforcement against drug trafficking organizations (DTOs). Mexican drug cartels have seized on their effective free reign on Mexican territory to ramp up illicit drug trafficking and migrant smuggling into the United States, tapping into highly profitable new revenue streams that threaten U.S. security and stability. This wealth has allowed cartels to grow in power and lethal capacity, further dissuading the Mexican government from deploying its limited enforcement capacities against the cartels.

Leveraging their sophisticated and sprawling illicit networks, Mexican drug cartels receive an estimated $30 billion each year in illicit revenue. Today, drug cartels are the fifth-largest employer in Mexico, with between 160,000 and 185,000 members.

 Cartels are also equipped with military-level weaponry, including anti-aircraft weapons and armored vehicles, while increasingly employing advanced technologies, such as drones and signal jamming systems.

Mexican drug cartels have successfully used violence and corruption as a primary tactic to capture and control territory within Mexico, gaining increasing levels of operational freedom in recent years. Even as the Mexican government has substantially reduced its armed confrontations with the cartels, cartel violence has risen to disturbing levels, with upwards of 40,000 recorded homicide deaths each year.7

 For the U.S., the consequences of increasingly empowered drug cartels have been dire. Between 2021 and 2023, the U.S. recorded 326,126 overdose deaths as fentanyl seizures tripled and more than 8.5 million border encounters.

Cartels in Mexico have proven willing partners for U.S. adversaries seeking to destabilize the United States.

Cartels in Mexico have proven willing partners for U.S. adversaries seeking to destabilize the United States. The Chinese Communist Party, through Chinese chemical companies and criminal groups, has provided a steady flow of fentanyl precursors to Mexican cartels, while Chinese money launderers aid the cartels in laundering their profits to avoid U.S. law enforcement.

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