News & Briefings

“Evolution is driven by chance and necessity.” This was the mantra of Nobel Prize winner Jacques Monod. While Monod was primarily known for his work as a French biologist and philosopher, he also served as Chief of Staff for Operations for the French resistance organization, the Forces Françaises de l’Interieur, during the Second World War. A true Renaissance man, he was equally adept at both exploring the field of enzymology and conducting railroad bombings. Monod’s evolutionary principle applies seamlessly to both protein enzymes and irregular warfare, as it offers a useful analytical lens for understanding the adaptation of military organizations to the evolving character of warfare.

Abstract: The competition between terror movements and counterterrorism forces is an interactive and iterative game, as the actions taken by one side are designed to defeat, circumvent, or shape the activity taken by the opposing players. To better understand these interactive dynamics, it is important to evaluate how terrorism and counterterrorism have been evolving. This article first takes high-level stock of how the spread, structure, scale, and speed of terrorism have been changing in recent years and highlights key challenges and implications for counterterrorism. It then evaluates the United States’ ongoing effort to find a sustainable counterterrorism path, a journey that has been filled with challenges, benefits, dilemmas, and opportunities, and discusses how key factors have been shaping the direction, reach, and pace of change. An important takeaway from these reviews is that while the threat of international terrorism is not what it used to be, there is a lot of change occurring across the terrorism landscape. U.S. counterterrorism has also been undergoing some important shifts, and there are open questions about whether U.S. CT forces and assets will be spread further. If not managed carefully, change taking place across these two ‘systems’ could interact in ways that may disrupt CT progress.