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The fragile, imperfect ceasefire in Lebanon has held. But it could become more tenuous after a recent change to a critical element in its success: high-level, on-the-ground U.S. military coordination and leadership.
The 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy made headlines by officially downgrading terrorism as a national security priority in favor of “inter-state strategic competition.” Many interpreted the statement as signifying a return to “conventional combat,” yet a closer reading suggests that even state-based competition is likely to be “irregular.”
In the 1960s, some analysts and scholars were convinced that the Soviet Union was on a trajectory to overtake the U.S. in industrial production and material satisfaction. In the 1980s, Japan’s efficient manufacturing prowess and high-profile purchases of U.S. real estate and entertainment companies caused concern about the end of American hegemony.4 In the 2020s, the fear is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will chart a course to global dominance that displaces the U.S.-backed Western Liberal International Order (WLIO) by 2049 or earlier.
Chinese military theory has long valued stratagems focused on undermining the morale of an opposing force. In his penultimate work, The Art of War, famed Zhou dynasty strategist Sun Tzu wrote, “Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”
The world is at a strategic inflection point, and the challenges we face are more complex than ever. From technological advancements to global instability, Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) are stepping up to reshape how we compete, deter, and prevail in an era of uncertainty.
ARSOF Strategy 2030 lays out our vision for the future, one rooted in innovation, partnership, and adaptability.
In the year 2084, thirty-something years after the Sky Global Algorithmic Network (Sky-GAN) solidified its grip, controlling everything from resource allocation to thought patterns through personalized data streams, the quiet town of Pineland was about to become a flashpoint. Sky-GAN wasn’t a traditional occupying force with tanks and soldiers; its presence was insidious, woven into the very fabric of daily life. Dissent was preempted, individuality was suppressed, and the once vibrant community was slowly being homogenized into compliant cogs in the Sky-GAN machine.
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